Research paperWho sells what? Country specific differences in substance availability on the Agora cryptomarket
Introduction
It has been estimated the global disease burden for illicit drugs attributable to mental, neurological and substance use disorders has increased by 37.6% between 1990 and 2010, with substance use disorders accounting for around 2% of all global disease burden (Whiteford, Ferrari, Degenhardt, Feigin, & Vos, 2013; Whiteford et al., 2015). This presents unique and complex challenges to health systems due to psychosocial and socioeconomic costs of addiction, adverse events and related criminal activity that may be associated with the acquisition and consumption of illicit substances (Chandler, Fletcher, & Volkow, 2009). The rise of the use of the internet over the past two decades has led to the development of new methods of distribution of substances (Walsh, 2011). Initially this appeared driven by the sale of illicit pharmaceuticals, and later, the introduction of new classes of substances, deemed ‘new psychoactive substances’ (NPS), not subject to international legislative control (Boyer, Shannon, & Hibberd, 2005). The more recent advent of the ‘dark net’, using Tor (‘The Onion Router’), which reroutes user connections through anonymising servers, to access websites has made it possible to sell and source substances online with greater anonymity and hence reduced risk of detection and prosecution. Since the dark net and its use for illicit drug trading reached public awareness in 2011 (Chen, 2011), it has become a well-established mode for both purchasing and selling illicit substances at an international level. Specifically, the development of increasingly secure and anonymous ‘cryptomarkets’, that operate on the dark net in a similar fashion to clear net marketplaces such as Ebay (Barratt, 2012). The number and capacity of dark net ‘cryptomarkets’ has increased since 2011, with current research reporting over 5000 unique sellers operating over the five largest marketplaces at the end of 2014 (Soska & Christin, 2015; Van Buskirk, Roxburgh, Bruno, & Burns, 2015).
While research to date has investigated consumer and seller motivations for accessing cryptomarkets (Bancroft & Scott Reid, 2015; Barratt, Ferris, & Winstock, 2014; Barratt, Ferris, & Winstock, 2016; Van Hout and Bingham, 2013, Van Hout and Bingham, 2014) and changes in substance availability over time (Van Buskirk, Roxburgh, Bruno, & Burns, 2013; Van Buskirk, Roxburgh, Bruno, & Burns, 2014a; Van Buskirk, Roxburgh, Bruno, & Burns, 2014b; Van Buskirk, Roxburgh, Bruno et al., 2015), less is known about country-specific differences in substance availability and the country of origin of sellers operating on these markets. Though previous research has reported on the distribution of substance listings across countries (Aldridge & Décary-Hétu, 2014; Christin, 2013; Décary-Hétu, Paquet-Clouston, & Aldridge, 2016; Soska & Christin, 2015), this has largely been descriptive, without country-specific implications being discussed. Previous research has indicated good correlation between the availability of (both traditional illicit and NPS) substances on cryptomarkets and those substances most commonly used among psychostimulant users in Australia (Burns, Roxburgh, Bruno, & Van Buskirk, 2014). That is, the most commonly sold substances on cryptomarkets are also those most commonly used among sentinel groups of people who use drugs. However, it is not known whether similar findings may apply to other countries. Findings will likely depend on the country’s geographic location and legislation governing controlled substances, as well as other known factors such as price, availability, and proximity to production networks of these substances (Martin, 2014).
For example, Australia, due to its geographic isolation and relatively high drug prices (Sindicich & Burns, 2015), is likely to have more of a domestic market operating on the dark net, with Australian sellers selling largely to Australian consumers. Though the potential exists for Australians to import from international sellers, this carries an inflated risk due to stringent border control and screening of imported items (Van Buskirk et al., 2013). Domestic distribution avoids the risks associated with border control. Given the likelihood of a more domestically oriented market, the availability of substances listed on cryptomarkets by Australian sellers will more closely reflect Australian population usage patterns. By contrast, China, due to its strict control of internet access (Ensafi, Winter, Mueen, & Crandall, 2015), tight control of psychoactive substances (Chen & Huang, 2007), proximity to the Golden Triangle (one of the largest opium producing areas in the world), and its active role in the domestic production of NPS (Smith & Garlich, 2013), may be more likely to export locally produced substances instead of distributing them domestically (Décary-Hétu et al., 2016). Similarly, in the Netherlands, in which drug laws are relatively relaxed and drugs more readily available (Chatwin, 2015), with a large degree of domestic production of substances such as cocaine, MDMA and cannabis (EMCDDA, 2013) there would be seemingly less motivation for local consumers to source drugs from cryptomarkets and more motivation for Dutch sellers to export to foreign consumers (Décary-Hétu et al., 2016).
The current study aims to investigate (1) internationally, which countries account for the greatest number of illicit substance listings on the largest cryptomarket at the time of data collection (being Agora); and (2) differences in the number and range of substances sold by sellers operating from those countries.
Section snippets
Data selection
The cryptomarket Agora was chosen for analysis firstly due to its size: at the time of data collection, Agora was the largest marketplace on the dark net. Second, Agora provides the most detail in each listing description compared to other cryptomarkets.
Sampling schedule
A quasi random sample of seven days within the 28-day period from the 15th of February 2015 to the 15th of March 2015 was generated using Microsoft Excel to determine days on which data capture would take place. This sampling methodology was
Poisson regression
Country of origin (USA, UK, Australia, Netherlands, China and unclear origin) was strongly associated with the number of drug listings on Agora (Wald Chi-Squared = 29,769, p < 0.001). This very large magnitude of the effect can be attributed to the large disparity among seller country of origin with regard to both the number of substances listed and the category substances available on the Agora cryptomarket. The incidence of drug listings occurring from sellers not showing USA as country of origin
Discussion
This paper outlines for the first time comparisons by country in the availability of substances, and the number of sellers by country of origin, listed on the largest cryptomarket (at time of data collection) on the dark net, Agora. A very large magnitude of effect was observed for seller country of origin in predicting the number of listings on Agora. This is due to the significant differences in the number of listings and type of substances listed across countries, as the USA was by far the
Conclusions
The emergence of online drug markets presents an important new data source for understanding both the dynamics and the relative size of marketplaces within a domestic and international context. The current paper is the first to identify an overrepresentation of Australian sellers on Agora, likely driven by Australia’s relative geographical isolation and historically higher prices for illicit drugs. Data presented here also corroborate China’s suspected leading role in the production and
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
References (53)
- et al.
Hidden Wholesale: The drug diffusing capacity of online drug cryptomarkets
International Journal of Drug Policy
(2016) - et al.
Safer scoring? Cryptomarkets, social supply and drug market violence
International Journal of Drug Policy
(2016) Price and purity analysis for illicit drug: Data and conceptual issues
Drug and Alcohol Dependence
(2007)- et al.
Drug problems in China: Recent trends, countermeasures, and challenges
International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology
(2007) - et al.
Going international? Risk taking by cryptomarket drug vendors
International Journal of Drug Policy
(2016) - et al.
A response to Dolliver’s “Evaluating drug trafficking on the Tor network”
International Journal of Drug Policy
(2015) - et al.
Responsible vendors, intelligent consumers: Silk Road, the online revolution in drug trading
International Journal of Drug Policy
(2014) - et al.
Global burden of disease attributable to mental and substance use disorders: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010
The Lancet
(2013) - et al.
Not an ‘Ebay for Drugs’: The Cryptomarket ‘Silk Road’ as a Paradigm Shifting Criminal Innovation
(2014) - Australian Crime Commission (2014). 2013–2014 Illicit drug data report, Illicit drug data report. Canberra,...
National drug strategy household survey detailed report 2013. Drug statistics series no. 28. Cat. no. PHE 183
Concepts of illicit drug quality among darknet market users: Purity, embodied experience, craft and chemical knowledge
International Journal of Drug Policy
Silk Road: Ebay for drugs
Addiction
Use of Silk Road, the online drug marketplace, in the United Kingdom, Australia and the United States
Addiction
The Internet and psychoactive substance use among innovative drug users
Pediatrics
TOR black-market-related arrests
Monitoring drug markets in the Internet age and the evolution of drug monitoring systems in Australia
Drug Testing and Analysis
Treating drug abuse and addiction in the criminal justice system: Improving public health and safety
JAMA
Mixed messages from Europe on drug policy reform: The cases of Sweden and the Netherlands
Traveling the Silk Road: A measurement analysis of a large anonymous online marketplace
Beyond drug dealing: Developing and extending the concept of ‘social supply’ of illicit drugs to ‘minimally commercial supply’
Drugs: Education, Prevention, and Policy
Drug users’ satisfaction with drug control by the Police in China
Asian Journal of Criminology
‘Our purity is above 99%’: the Chinese labs churning out legal highs for the west
Export marketing research in practice: A comparison of users and non-users
Journal of Marketing Management
European Union drug markets report: a strategic analysis
Cited by (63)
Drug transactions and the dark web: Public perceptions of the locational setting of offenders and support for drug policy outcomes
2024, International Journal of Drug PolicyBusting up Monopoly: Methods for modern darknet marketplace forensics
2023, Forensic Science International: Digital InvestigationDeal or no-deal? Using administrative data to explore buyer motivation in online drug purchases and its association with community risk factors in Scotland
2022, International Journal of Drug PolicyCitation Excerpt :point out that some users buy larger parcels of certain types of drug (such as Cannabis) for both frequent personal consumption and for sharing with friends and acquaintances in the expectation that they will return the favour in the future or to derive a small profit (i.e. social dealing). Whereas larger purchases of other types of drug which are often used in social settings, including parties and clubs, (such as MDMA) are more likely to be linked to wholesale dealing activities (Aldridge & Décary-Hétu, 2016; Van Buskirk et al., 2016). Intelligence shared by Police Scotland also suggests that some online buyers purchase drugs on a large scale with the intention of having a supply for a longer period, aiming to reduce the risks of attracting the attention of law enforcement (i.e. one larger parcel may be less liable to interception than multiple smaller ones).
The success rate of online illicit drug transactions during a global pandemic
2022, International Journal of Drug PolicyMonitoring drug trends in the digital environment–New methods, challenges and the opportunities provided by automated approaches
2021, International Journal of Drug PolicyDark web in the dark: Investigating when transactions take place on cryptomarkets
2021, Forensic Science International: Digital Investigation